Last updated October 18, 2026
The Boca Raton Home Seller Pricing Study 2026
Boca Raton houses that never cut their asking price closed at a median 96.9% of the original ask after 12 cumulative days on market; houses cut once closed at 90.1% after 69 days, and houses cut two or more times closed at 85.5% after 135 days.
Key takeaways
- Across 3,437 closings, the no-cut cohort was the largest group in both segments: 65.2% of house sales and 53.9% of condo and townhouse sales never changed their asking price.
- Houses that closed within 14 days on the record kept 99.0% of the original ask; houses past 180 days kept 85.5%.
- For Boca Raton houses first asked between $1 million and $2 million, two or more recorded cuts ran $158,977 below the no-cut result on a $1,399,000 ask; between $2 million and $5 million, $300,476 on $2,799,500.
- Condos and townhouses under $500,000, the largest single group in the city, gave up $39,177 on a $299,900 ask after two or more cuts.
Condos and townhouses followed the same ladder: 95.8%, 88.1% and 82.4%. This study covers every qualifying Boca Raton closing from January 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, 3,437 sales in all, from BeachesMLS listings permitted for internet display. Edition 2026-10-18, frozen on October 18, 2026.
The question: does overpricing a Boca Raton home lower the eventual sale price?
In the 2026 closings, the homes that had to cut sold for materially less of their original asking price, and the more cuts on record, the lower the result. The gap is not a few tenths of a point. For houses it is 6.9 points after one recorded cut and 11.5 points after two or more; for condos and townhouses, 7.7 and 13.5 points. Every one of those differences has a p-value below 0.001 (Mann-Whitney U), and the pattern repeats inside every asking-price band with enough closings to report, from houses between $500,000 and $1 million to houses at $5 million and up.
What the data cannot do is prove the first number caused the lower outcome. A price cut is how the market records an asking price it did not accept, so the cohorts are defined by what happened. Homes with problems a price cannot fix are more likely to be cut. Read the figures as the recorded cost of arriving at the market price late, not as a laboratory result.
What sellers kept of the original asking price
Across 3,437 closings, the no-cut cohort was the largest group in both segments: 65.2% of house sales and 53.9% of condo and townhouse sales never changed their asking price. The tables below give each cohort's size, its median closing price against the original and final asking prices, its median cumulative days on market, the share that closed at or above the original ask, and the tested difference from the no-cut cohort.
Houses
| Cohort | Closings | Share | Close vs original ask | Close vs final ask | Median cumulative days | Closed at or above original | Difference vs no cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No price cut | 1,103 | 65.2% | 96.9% | 96.9% | 12 | 30.0% | reference |
| One recorded cut | 343 | 20.3% | 90.1% | 94.9% | 69 | 0.0% | -6.9 pts (95% CI -7.9 to -6.1), p < 0.001 |
| Two or more recorded cuts | 224 | 13.2% | 85.5% | 94.9% | 135 | 0.0% | -11.5 pts (95% CI -12.6 to -10.5), p < 0.001 |
Condos and townhouses
| Cohort | Closings | Share | Close vs original ask | Close vs final ask | Median cumulative days | Closed at or above original | Difference vs no cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No price cut | 940 | 53.9% | 95.8% | 95.8% | 19 | 21.4% | reference |
| One recorded cut | 400 | 22.9% | 88.1% | 94.4% | 95.5 | 0.0% | -7.7 pts (95% CI -8.7 to -6.4), p < 0.001 |
| Two or more recorded cuts | 370 | 21.2% | 82.4% | 94.3% | 137 | 0.0% | -13.5 pts (95% CI -14.7 to -12.0), p < 0.001 |
Raised-price listings (12 houses, 23 condos/townhouses) and cut listings with an ambiguous price path (10 and 12) are in the totals but too few to report.
How long each path took
The no-cut house closed with a median 12 cumulative days on the record; the twice-cut house carried 135. For condos and townhouses the figures are 19 and 137. Cumulative days on market is the MLS field that survives a relisting; it is what a buyer's agent sees when the listing is pulled up. Half of the no-cut houses were under contract within two weeks, which is also why they never needed a second price.
The dollar gap on a typical Boca Raton home
On the median original asking price of a Boca Raton house in this study, $1,150,000, the difference between the no-cut cohort and the two-or-more-cuts cohort is $131,100. Against the one-cut cohort it is $78,200; against every cut house together, $101,200. For a condo or townhouse at the median original ask of $399,000, the gaps are $53,466, $30,723 and $40,698. These are median differences on the study population applied to one reference price; they are not a projection for any individual property.
Buyers pay the same share of the final asking price
Measured against the final asking price, every cohort closed inside a narrow band: 94.9% to 96.9% for houses and 94.3% to 95.8% for condos and townhouses. A high first price did not leave room that buyers later gave back; buyers negotiated roughly the same few percent off whatever number was on the listing the day they wrote the offer. The whole loss against the original ask is the reductions themselves, plus the months they took.
PBP Overpricing Index: what each path cost, by price band
The ladder repeats inside every asking-price band, and the dollar cost climbs with the price. The PBP Overpricing Index reads each band on its own: the no-cut cohort is the reference, and every other cohort is measured against it in points and in dollars on that band's median original asking price. For Boca Raton houses first asked between $1 million and $2 million, two or more recorded cuts ran $158,977 below the no-cut result on a $1,399,000 ask; between $2 million and $5 million, $300,476 on $2,799,500. Condos and townhouses under $500,000, the largest single group in the city, gave up $39,177 on a $299,900 ask after two or more cuts.
Houses
| Original asking price | Cohort | Closings | Close vs original ask | Median cumulative days | What the path cost vs no cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under $500K 64 closings, median original ask $471,000 | No price cut | 47 | 97.0% | 9 | reference |
| One recorded cut | 11 | Under 30 closings, not reported | |||
| Two or more recorded cuts | 6 | Under 30 closings, not reported | |||
| Relisted | 8 | Under 30 closings, not reported | |||
| 90+ cumulative days | 15 | Under 30 closings, not reported | |||
| $500K to $1M 710 closings, median original ask $750,000 | No price cut | 486 | 97.9% | 9.5 | reference |
| One recorded cut | 133 | 92.3% | 58 | $41,782 (-5.6 pts) | |
| Two or more recorded cuts | 82 | 89.0% | 83 | $66,269 (-8.8 pts) | |
| Relisted | 28 | Under 30 closings, not reported | |||
| 90+ cumulative days | 105 | 89.9% | 150 | $59,828 (-8.0 pts) | |
| $1M to $2M 436 closings, median original ask $1,399,000 | No price cut | 295 | 96.4% | 9 | reference |
| One recorded cut | 91 | 89.2% | 58 | $99,989 (-7.1 pts) | |
| Two or more recorded cuts | 45 | 85.0% | 157 | $158,977 (-11.4 pts) | |
| Relisted | 28 | Under 30 closings, not reported | |||
| 90+ cumulative days | 90 | 88.4% | 157 | $111,104 (-7.9 pts) | |
| $2M to $5M 356 closings, median original ask $2,799,500 | No price cut | 204 | 94.4% | 21 | reference |
| One recorded cut | 79 | 87.3% | 93 | $199,543 (-7.1 pts) | |
| Two or more recorded cuts | 69 | 83.7% | 159 | $300,476 (-10.7 pts) | |
| Relisted | 30 | 88.5% | 229 | $166,192 (-5.9 pts) | |
| 90+ cumulative days | 123 | 85.5% | 165 | $250,690 (-9.0 pts) | |
| $5M and up 126 closings, median original ask $7,499,500 | No price cut | 71 | 93.2% | 39 | reference |
| One recorded cut | 29 | Under 30 closings, not reported | |||
| Two or more recorded cuts | 22 | Under 30 closings, not reported | |||
| Relisted | 22 | Under 30 closings, not reported | |||
| 90+ cumulative days | 67 | 86.4% | 231 | $508,967 (-6.8 pts) | |
Condos and townhouses
| Original asking price | Cohort | Closings | Close vs original ask | Median cumulative days | What the path cost vs no cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under $500K 1,090 closings, median original ask $299,900 | No price cut | 548 | 95.6% | 20 | reference |
| One recorded cut | 276 | 87.5% | 88 | $24,046 (-8.0 pts) | |
| Two or more recorded cuts | 241 | 82.5% | 132 | $39,177 (-13.1 pts) | |
| Relisted | 82 | 92.2% | 231.5 | $10,046 (-3.3 pts) | |
| 90+ cumulative days | 396 | 85.3% | 156 | $30,874 (-10.3 pts) | |
| $500K to $1M 400 closings, median original ask $645,700 | No price cut | 237 | 96.8% | 13 | reference |
| One recorded cut | 78 | 90.5% | 105 | $40,805 (-6.3 pts) | |
| Two or more recorded cuts | 77 | 84.3% | 134 | $80,564 (-12.5 pts) | |
| Relisted | 28 | Under 30 closings, not reported | |||
| 90+ cumulative days | 138 | 88.2% | 163 | $55,183 (-8.5 pts) | |
| $1M and up 255 closings, median original ask $1,850,000 | No price cut | 155 | 94.7% | 27 | reference |
| One recorded cut | 46 | 85.7% | 135 | $167,047 (-9.0 pts) | |
| Two or more recorded cuts | 52 | 79.5% | 200 | $280,079 (-15.1 pts) | |
| Relisted | 22 | Under 30 closings, not reported | |||
| 90+ cumulative days | 108 | 84.6% | 182 | $186,083 (-10.1 pts) | |
Cohorts under 30 closings are counted but not reported. The relisted and 90-plus-day rows overlap the cut rows: a home can be in more than one. The Index is published inside this study for now; it may later move to its own page with more cities.
Time on market, band by band
| Cumulative days on market | Closings | Close vs original ask | Close vs final ask | Median cumulative days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 14 days | 624 | 99.0% | 99.2% | 4 |
| 15 to 30 days | 233 | 94.5% | 95.5% | 22 |
| 31 to 60 days | 273 | 93.2% | 95.0% | 45 |
| 61 to 90 days | 167 | 90.7% | 94.7% | 74 |
| 91 to 180 days | 224 | 88.5% | 94.6% | 130 |
| 181 days or more | 171 | 85.5% | 93.2% | 251 |
| Cumulative days on market | Closings | Close vs original ask | Close vs final ask | Median cumulative days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 14 days | 416 | 97.9% | 97.9% | 6 |
| 15 to 30 days | 219 | 95.2% | 95.6% | 22 |
| 31 to 60 days | 281 | 92.7% | 94.8% | 46 |
| 61 to 90 days | 193 | 90.0% | 94.2% | 74 |
| 91 to 180 days | 368 | 87.7% | 94.3% | 123.5 |
| 181 days or more | 268 | 83.3% | 93.8% | 269 |
Houses that closed within 14 days on the record kept 99.0% of the original ask; houses past 180 days kept 85.5%. The 90-day mark is where the Boca Raton record turns: 400 houses and 642 condos/townhouses crossed it, closing at 87.8% and 86.0% of their original asking prices.
How deep the cuts went
| Total reduction | Closings | Close vs original ask | Close vs final ask | Median cumulative days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 3% | 98 | 94.1% | 96.2% | 74 |
| 3% to 6% | 202 | 90.6% | 94.7% | 71 |
| 6% to 10% | 130 | 87.6% | 95.1% | 95 |
| 10% or more | 147 | 80.0% | 94.1% | 151 |
| Total reduction | Closings | Close vs original ask | Close vs final ask | Median cumulative days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 3% | 97 | 93.4% | 95.2% | 102 |
| 3% to 6% | 180 | 90.9% | 95.2% | 86.5 |
| 6% to 10% | 182 | 86.5% | 94.0% | 111 |
| 10% or more | 323 | 78.4% | 93.8% | 153 |
Because buyers pay a near-constant share of the final ask, the depth of the cut is almost the whole story of the outcome: houses cut 10% or more closed at 80.0% of the original figure after a median 151 days.
Relisted homes: a caution on the record
116 houses and 132 condos/townhouses closed with more cumulative days than current-listing days, the MLS signature of a relisting; they closed at 91.9% and 92.2% of the original ask, after medians of 217 and 219.5 cumulative days. Those ratios look better than the cut cohorts, and the reason is the record itself: a relisted home carries the original asking price of its current listing, not of the earlier attempt, so the reset hides the first reduction. The days do not reset. Treat the relisted ratio as flattering and the relisted time as the honest number.
Is the difference statistically meaningful?
Yes. Every cut cohort differs from the no-cut cohort at p below 0.001 on both the price ratio and the time on market, with confidence intervals that never touch zero.
- Houses, one recorded cut vs no cut: -6.9 points on the close-to-original ratio (95% confidence interval -7.9 to -6.1), p < 0.001; +57 days on the median cumulative time (95% CI +49 to +68), p < 0.001.
- Houses, two or more recorded cuts vs no cut: -11.5 points on the close-to-original ratio (95% confidence interval -12.6 to -10.5), p < 0.001; +123 days on the median cumulative time (95% CI +111 to +143), p < 0.001.
- Condos and townhouses, one recorded cut vs no cut: -7.7 points on the close-to-original ratio (95% confidence interval -8.7 to -6.4), p < 0.001; +76 days on the median cumulative time (95% CI +68 to +88), p < 0.001.
- Condos and townhouses, two or more recorded cuts vs no cut: -13.5 points on the close-to-original ratio (95% confidence interval -14.7 to -12.0), p < 0.001; +118 days on the median cumulative time (95% CI +111 to +137), p < 0.001.
Tests are two-sided Mann-Whitney U on the listing-level ratios and day counts; confidence intervals are bootstrap percentiles of the difference in medians (2,000 resamples). Statistical significance here means the gap is not a sampling accident; it does not by itself establish cause.
Month by month in 2026
| Closing month | House closings | Houses: no cut | Houses: close vs original | Condo/TH closings | Condos/TH: no cut | Condos/TH: close vs original |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | 147 | 61.2% | 93.2% | 144 | 50.7% | 90.6% |
| February 2026 | 152 | 69.7% | 94.4% | 138 | 50.0% | 91.3% |
| March 2026 | 207 | 62.8% | 93.8% | 221 | 52.9% | 92.0% |
| April 2026 | 203 | 66.0% | 94.5% | 212 | 52.4% | 92.1% |
| May 2026 | 200 | 67.5% | 95.4% | 238 | 52.1% | 92.6% |
| June 2026 | 224 | 67.0% | 95.3% | 232 | 54.3% | 92.3% |
| July 2026 | 218 | 65.1% | 95.5% | 218 | 53.2% | 92.3% |
| August 2026 | 178 | 64.6% | 94.2% | 164 | 60.4% | 93.5% |
| September 2026 | 163 | 62.0% | 93.7% | 178 | 59.0% | 93.9% |
The share of houses that never cut stayed between 61.2% and 69.7% of each month's closings; for condos and townhouses, 50.0% to 60.4%. Closings are grouped by closing month; most contracts were signed one to two months earlier.
Method, source and download
Closed residential sales in Boca Raton, Florida, closing 2026-01-01 through 2026-09-30, from BeachesMLS listings permitted for internet display. Houses and condos/townhouses are reported separately; the bucket follows the tax legal description. Short sales, bank-owned, foreclosure and auction flags excluded; list or close prices under $50,000, cumulative days on market outside 0 to 720 and close-to-original ratios outside 0.4 to 1.6 excluded as data errors. Cohorts use the three recorded asking prices (original, previous, final): 'no cut' = final equals original; 'one recorded cut' = final below original with no intermediate price recorded; 'two or more recorded cuts' = an intermediate price sits between original and final. The MLS record does not carry every price change, so exact counts are floors. 'Relisted' = recorded cumulative days exceed the current listing's days. Medians throughout; Mann-Whitney U tests and bootstrap 95% confidence intervals compare each cohort with the no-cut cohort. Association, not causation.
- Population: 3,657 Boca Raton residential closings dated 2026 were retrieved on October 18, 2026; 152 closed in the current, still-reporting month and are excluded; 68 were excluded under the rules above (dom range 9, ratio outlier 5, distress 25, bucket 22, price floor 7); 3,437 were analyzed: 1,692 houses and 1,745 condos and townhouses.
- Coverage: listings whose sellers permitted internet display. Opt-out listings are absent and their number is unknown, so this is not a census of every Boca Raton sale.
- Editions: this is edition 2026-10-18. Figures on this page and in its table are frozen. A new edition with a new file name is published each day the data refreshes; the final 2026 edition follows the January 2027 reporting lag.
- Download the aggregate table: boca-raton-2026-2026-10-18.csv (CSV, 2026-10-18 edition) or the latest edition. Listing-level records are MLS data and are not redistributed.
- Free to cite with attribution to "PBP Real Estate analysis of BeachesMLS listing data" and a link to this page. For the aggregate tables behind any figure, write to info@pbpre.com.
Related reading: Boca Raton real estate statistics (every Boca Raton figure on one page), Asking price vs sale price in Boca Raton (updated daily), the cost of overpricing a Boca Raton home, how buyers read an asking price and selling a house in Boca Raton.; and the best time to sell a house in Boca Raton, which measures the listing-month effect against the pricing effect on this page.
BeachesMLS listings permitted for internet display, analyzed by PBP Real Estate. This data is not verified for authenticity or accuracy and may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Based on information (c) 2026 BeachesMLS, Inc.
Questions about the Boca Raton pricing study
Does overpricing a Boca Raton home lower the eventual sale price?
In the 2026 closings the answer is yes in association terms: Boca Raton houses that never cut their asking price closed at a median 96.9% of the original ask, houses cut once at 90.1% and houses cut two or more times at 85.5%. Condos and townhouses ran 95.8%, 88.1% and 82.4%. The gaps hold inside every price band and are far beyond chance (p below 0.001). The data cannot prove the first price caused the lower result, because a cut is how the market records an asking price it did not accept.
How much money is the gap worth on a typical Boca Raton house?
Applied to the median original asking price of a Boca Raton house in the study ($1,150,000), the difference between the no-cut cohort and the two-or-more-cuts cohort is $131,100; against the one-cut cohort it is $78,200. For a condo or townhouse at the median original ask of $399,000 the gaps are $53,466 and $30,723. These are median differences on the study population, not a prediction for any one property.
Do buyers pay less of the final asking price after a cut?
No. Measured against the FINAL asking price, every cohort closed in a narrow band: 94.9% to 96.9% for houses and 94.3% to 95.8% for condos and townhouses. Buyers negotiate about the same amount off whatever price is on the listing when they make the offer; the loss versus the original ask is the cuts themselves plus the time they took.
How were the cohorts built and what are the limits?
The MLS record carries three asking prices per closed listing: original, previous and final. No cut means final equals original. One recorded cut means final is below original with no intermediate price on record. Two or more recorded cuts means an intermediate price sits between the two. The record does not keep every change, so counts are floors. A relisted home carries the original price of its current listing, not of an earlier attempt, so relisted results are flattering. Houses and condos/townhouses are never combined. Full method and the aggregate table are on this page.
Where does the data come from and can I cite it?
Closed sales of BeachesMLS listings permitted for internet display, pulled through PBP Real Estate's brokerage data feed and analyzed by PBP Real Estate. The 2026-10-18 edition is frozen: the figures on this page and in the downloadable table will not change. The study is free to cite with attribution to "PBP Real Estate analysis of BeachesMLS listing data" and a link to this page.
Free to reuse with attribution and a link to PBP Real Estate. Figures, tables and charts on this page may be quoted, screenshotted or embedded. Keep the source line and link to www.pbprealestate.com/boca-raton-home-seller-pricing-study-2026/. Aggregates only: no address, listing number or listing-level record is published here.
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